Introduction: With the Spring Festival approaching, the market is mostly in a state of price without a market, and the downstream factories are basically in a state of holiday, PVC market trading generally turned weak, the lack of transaction performance, for the post-holiday market performance?
The demand side is not doing well
This week downstream products enterprises are basically in a state of holiday, market transactions are not much, a single talk, there is a small amount of downstream replenishment before the festival. From the point of view of the holiday time, more than 90% of downstream products enterprises were on holiday from January 15 to 30, and only a small number of enterprises were on holiday for 5-7 days, and the overall market demand plummeted before the holiday.
Inventory continues to drain
During the festival, the PVC upstream device basically maintained the normal load, the output was expected to maintain the growth trend, and the terminal stock basically ended. With the increase of upstream arrivals, PVC social inventory may continue to increase, and the industry inventory is expected to continue to accumulate mainly. From this point of view, the supply side is under great pressure. The current inventory is still high compared with last year, and the speed and range of accumulation remain to be seen.
PVC market trend within months
New Year’s Day holiday returned, PVC prices rose slightly, although the market lacks substantial demand support, but by the economic policy in 2023 and other macro favorable, bullish market confidence boosted, driving traders to pull up the supply of goods after the holiday offer. But approaching the Spring Festival, the market is mostly in a state of price without a market, and the downstream factories are basically in a state of holiday, PVC market trading generally turned weak, the lack of transaction performance.
Post-holiday market forecast
On the supply side, the equipment maintenance of domestic PVC enterprises is less in February, coupled with the Spring Festival holiday, there are still inventory expectations after the holiday. In addition, Hebei Cangzhou Polong and Guangxi Huayi have been put into production but not yet realized mass production, and the supply expectation of new capacity after the holiday is high. On the demand side, there are many low position operations in the downstream, and some expectation of covering positions after the holiday, and the market has a good expectation of the post-holiday demand, but there are still many uncertainties in the recovery of terminal demand. Overall, the PVC market is expected to remain high and firm after the festival
Post time: Jan-19-2023