PVC price t rose first and then fell in September

Since September, the PVC market rose first and then fell, the price center of gravity moved down slightly, and the change of raw materials showed certain differences. The shock of calcium carbide and VCM fell slightly, while ethylene increased somewhat. The overall loss of calcium carbide PVC did not change much, and the profit of PVC from ethylene method gradually turned to loss.  Late raw calcium carbide continue to explore space is not large, and PVC or low shock, is expected to industry overall loss situation difficult to change.

Since September, the domestic PVC market showed a trend of shock, the price rose first and then fell, and the price center of gravity moved down slightly compared with August.  In terms of raw materials, due to different processes, different types of enterprises still have certain differences in profitability, accounting for the highest proportion of calcium carbide PVC loss degree changes little.

Calcium carbide PVC enterprise loss degree change little

In September, the loss degree of calcium carbide PVC did not change much. Taking the PVC purchased from calcium carbide in Shandong as an example, the industry loss was 992 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and as of September 22, the industry loss was 1030 yuan/ton, and the intermediate time loss was slightly lower.

On the one hand, the main factors that affect the profit of calcium carbide PVC method are stable supply of calcium carbide market, PVC loss in the downstream is more, calcium carbide price shock fell slightly, but with the decline of calcium carbide price, calcium carbide also into the loss, the industry load rate slightly decreased, the end of the calcium carbide price basically stable.  However, this month the PVC cost of calcium carbide method showed a downward trend of shock.

On the other hand, PVC market supply and demand have improved, the supply increment is slightly greater than the demand increment, the inventory slightly increased, and in absolute terms, PVC inventory is at a high level, there is a certain pressure on the fundamentals.  In addition, on the macro level, the market was slightly boosted in the first half of the month when the domestic economic data was better than expected, but in the second half of the month, as the Federal Reserve increased its interest rate, the macro atmosphere became weaker, driving the overall market down.  Under the dual influence of fundamentals and macro surface, the PVC market rose first and then fell in September, and the monthly average price decreased slightly compared with August.

Import VCM enterprises maintain small profit

In September, the enterprises importing VCM maintained the state of small profit, the profit of the first half of the month increased slightly, the highest to 272 yuan/ton, the profit of the second half of the month decreased again 64 yuan/ton.

The main factors affecting the profits of imported VCM enterprises are the changes of raw material VCM and PVC price. The price of raw material VCM mainly refers to the import price, while the price of imported VCM drops slightly successively, and the PVC cost drops as a whole.  The price trend of vinyl PVC is basically the same as that of calcium carbide PVC. The price rises slightly in the first half of the month and falls in the second half of the month.  So imported VCM PVC enterprises in the first half of the profit increased slightly, the second half of the profit fell.

Cost reduction space is not large industry overall loss will continue

The cost of raw calcium carbide remains high. At present, the calcium carbide industry is in a state of loss. The price of calcium carbide continues to fall, and the PVC cost support is still strong.  However, in the medium and long term, PVC supply will continue to exceed demand. In the context of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and real estate weakness, PVC demand is difficult to improve, so it is expected that PVC price center will still have a slightly downward trend.  Overall, the PVC industry loss situation is still difficult to change.

Post time: Sep-27-2022