Polyethylene: A brief analysis of import and export data in July

According to customs statistics, the monthly import volume of polyethylene in July 2022 was 1,021,600 tons, almost unchanged from the previous month (102.15), a decrease of 9.36% year-on-year.  LDPE (tariff code 39011000) imported about 226,200 tons, decreased by 5.16% month on month, increased by 0.04% year on year;  HDPE (tariff code 39012000) imported about 447,400 tons, decreased 8.92% month on month, decreased 15.41% year on year;  LLDPE (Tariff code: 39014020) imported about 34800 tons, increased by 19.22% month on month, decreased by 6.46% year on year.  The cumulative import volume from January to July was 7,589,200 tons, down 13.23% year on year.  Under the continuous loss of upstream production profits, the domestic end maintained high maintenance and reduced the negative ratio, while the supply side was under little pressure. However, overseas inflation and interest rate rise made the external demand continue to weaken, and the import profit maintained a loss. In July, the import volume was maintained at a low level.

In July 2022, the proportion of the top 10 polyethylene import source countries changed greatly, Saudi Arabia returned to the top, the total import of 196,600 tons, an increase of 4.60%, accounting for 19.19%;  Iran ranked second, with a total import of 16600 tons, down 16.34% from the previous month, accounting for 16.25%;  The third place was the United Arab Emirates, which imported 135,500 tons, down 10.56% from the previous month, accounting for 13.26%.  Four to ten are South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Qatar, Thailand, the Russian Federation and Malaysia.

In July, China imported polyethylene according to registration statistics, the first place is still Zhejiang Province, the import volume of 232,600 tons, accounting for 22.77%;  Shanghai ranked second, with 187,200 tons of imports, accounting for 18.33%;  Guangdong Province was the third, with imports of 170,500 tons, accounting for 16.68%;  Shandong Province is the fourth, the import of 141,900 tons, accounting for 13.89%;  Shandong Province, Jiangsu Province, Fujian Province, Beijing, Tianjin Municipality, Hebei Province and Anhui Province ranked fourth to 10th.

In July, our country polyethylene import trade partners, the general trade field accounted for 79.19%, reduces 0.15% from the quarter before, the import quantity about 80900 tons.  Processing trade of imported materials accounted for 10.83%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous month, and the imported quantity was about 110,600 tons.  Logistics goods in the area under special customs supervision accounted for about 7.25%, a decrease of 13.06% from the previous month, and the import volume was about 74,100 tons.

In terms of exports, statistics show that the export volume of polyethylene in July 2022 was about 85,600 tons, a decrease of 17.13% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 144.37%.  Specific products, LDPE export about 21,500 tons, decreased 6.93% month on month, increased 57.48% year on year;  HDPE export about 36,600 tons, 22.78% month-on-month decrease, 120.84% year-on-year increase;  LLDPE exported about 27,500 tons, a decrease of 16.16 percent month-on-month and an increase of 472.43 percent year-on-year.  The cumulative export volume from January to July was 436,300 tons, up 38.60% year on year.  In July, overseas construction gradually returned, supply increased, and with the weakening of overseas demand, export profits suffered, the export window was basically closed, export volume decreased.

The international crude oil price has successively fallen below the mark of $100 and $90, and the polyethylene price in Europe and the United States has continued to drop significantly, thus opening the import arbitrage window. In addition, the pressure of polyethylene production has increased, and some overseas sources have begun to flow into China at low prices. The import volume is expected to increase in August.  In terms of export, the domestic PE market is in sufficient supply of resources, while the downstream demand is in low season, the resource digestion is limited, coupled with the continuous depreciation of RMB, which provides favorable support for export. The export quantity of polyethylene in August may be considerable.


Post time: Aug-30-2022