Market trading strong , PVC prices slowly upward

[Lead] The recent spot market price of PVC slowly upward, as of January 11, East China 5 material price in 6350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous month, an increase of 1.6%. Although the current PVC market is in the background of weakening fundamentals and gradually stagnant demand, but some industry insiders are expected to look strong after the year, the expected speculation sentiment is strong, PVC prices are easy to rise before the festival is difficult to fall.

First, PVC price gravity shift:

As of January 11, East China 5 type material price at 6350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous month, up by 1.6%. From the futures board, at the beginning of January, the board price maintained in the 6150-6300 range, and the current concussion range in the 6300-6450 range. In the case of gradually weakening demand, strong expectations to drive up the disk, thus affecting market sentiment, spot with rising. Because of downstream shutdown, upstream library in line with expectations, not new bearish, resulting in more market is expected after the trading festival, PVC spot prices easy to rise hard to fall.

Second, after the domestic epidemic control, real estate policies have been introduced in succession, which is expected to improve

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He delivers a written speech at the fifth round of China-Eu Business Leaders and former Senior Officials Dialogue on Dec 15. Liu He pointed out that we are very confident that the Chinese economy will achieve overall improvement next year. Real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy. In response to the current downside risks, we have introduced some policies and are considering new measures to improve the balance sheet of the industry and guide the recovery of market expectations and confidence.

On the evening of January 5, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first home loan interest rate policy. The lower limit of the first home loan interest rate can be phased out after the new home price falls for 3 months.

In 2022, the real estate market has experienced various policy adjustments, but the current market confidence has not been reversed, and it is still the top priority to boost the confidence of both the supply and demand markets. Next year, real estate enterprises and demand – side support policies will continue to exert force.

Three, the current PVC market trading expected logic, spot easy to rise hard to fall

Overall, the increase in PVC supply, social inventory, downstream holiday work in line with the Spring Festival expectations, not new negative. And export orders stage good will continue, as well as the real estate policy end continues to release good, continue to enhance market confidence, strong expectations under the influence of PVC market is easy to rise hard to fall, PVC prices in January to see 6250-6400 yuan/ton.

Post time: Jan-12-2023