High inventory + production pressure, PVC price rise is difficult

In early August, PVC market rebound pressure, prices down. There are many disturbing factors in the market in August, including the situation in Taiwan, the expectation of real estate insurance, the long-short game before the delivery of 09 contracts and the expectation of interest rate hikes in the United States, coupled with the regional power rationing affected by high temperature and little rain. On the supply side, due to the impact of the epidemic, power rationing and cost, the quantity reduction is increasing. At the same time, there are new upstream maintenance enterprises in September, and the expected quantity reduction of supply is obvious. On the demand side, the low season is obvious in August, with the regional power rationing in Southwest and East China, and the demand is weak. After the power rationing ends and September is the traditional peak season, the demand may increase.


Company name Production process production capacity 10000MT Remarks Chang time Recover plan
YUNNAN NANLING Calcium carbide process PVC 24 no plan 2019.April 1 no plan
NEIMENG ZHONGGU Calcium carbide process PVC 30 2022.January.7 no plan
SHANXI HUOJIAGOU Calcium carbide process PVC 16 2022.July.8 -
YIBIN TIANYUAN Calcium carbide process PVC 38 power limited 2022.August,8 -
SICHUAN JINLU Calcium carbide process PVC 30 power limited 2022.August,8 -
HENAN SHANMA Calcium carbide process PVC 30 2022.August,12 -
SHANDONG XINFA Calcium carbide process PVC 20 Device failure 2022.August,22 -
XINJIANG ZHONGTAI Calcium carbide process PVC 90 stopped 2022.August,24 -
SHANDONG LUTAI Calcium carbide process PVC 37 power limited 2022.August,25 -
XINJIANG TIANYE Calcium carbide process PVC 60 device 2022.August,4 -
NINGBO TAISU Vinyl method PVC 40 Equipment maintenance 2022.August,24 2022.September 5th
SUZHOU SUHUA Vinyl method PVC 13 Equipment maintenance 2022.August,25 2022.September4th
TIANJIN LG Vinyl method PVC 40 Equipment maintenance in September 2022,September,1 2022.September 8th
BAOTOU HAIPINGMIAN Calcium carbide process PVC 40 Equipment maintenance in September 2022,September,4 2022.September 14th
SHANDONG XINFA Calcium carbide process PVC 50 Equipment maintenance in September 2022,September -
NINGXIA JINYUYUAN Calcium carbide process PVC 70 Equipment maintenance in September  


Currently LIMITED power impact of enterprises, Hubei Yihua and Hunan HengYANG KINGBOARD have been restored, only Sichuan area enterprises are still affected. New maintenance enterprises in September: Tianjin LG, Baotou Sea level, Shandong Xinfa, Ningxia Jinyuyuan. Formosa Plastics Ningbo and Suzhou Huasu facilities resumed in early September.

In the first half of 2022, 1 million tons of new units in the domestic PVC market were put into production (including replacement), including 800,000 tons of capacity replacement in Tianjin Dagu old plant, 200,000 tons of ginger bell plant in Dezhou Shihua, and 50,000 tons of plant capacity withdrawal in Anhui Wuhu Ronghui, increasing the capacity base to 26.02 million tons/year. As can be seen from the table, the overall production pressure of PVC is concentrated in September to December, involving 1.7 million tons of production capacity, an increase of 6.5%.

Overall, the expected increase in demand in September is still a variable, if the increase in demand is not as expected, and the pressure of superimposed production, as well as the current high industry inventory, PVC resistance to the rise of the road.


Post time: Aug-29-2022