China PVC price analysis 2022.07.27

July 26 Asian ethylene CFR Northeast Asia average price of 900 USD/ton stable;  CFR Southeast Asia’s average price of $980 a ton fell $50 a ton.  The overall start-up of South Korean local production enterprises is down, and the spot supply is tight. Combined with the increase of demand in South China, the demand side of Northeast Asia ethylene market is positive for a period. The new order is increased to $900 / ton.


Yesterday, the purchasing price of domestic carbide in Henan and Shaanxi was increased by 50 yuan/ton. Today, the ex-factory price in Wuhai and Ningxia was increased by 50 yuan/ton. The cost side continued to fall, and the operation pressure of enterprises was relieved.


With 32% ionic membrane alkali price of 1080 yuan/ton in Shandong and liquid chlorine price of -500 yuan/ton, the theoretical production cost of chlor-alkali in Shandong market is 3205 yuan/ton (fold 100), and the theoretical loss is 270 yuan/ton (fold 100).


Spot prices


Lack of recent market highlights, more focused on the policy of market expectations, but market demand did not land, the week transaction to maintain bleak, high low close spot, futures price adjustment is insufficient, maintain range shock.


Today, domestic PVC production enterprises mainly wait and see, not much adjustment, ethylene process equipment has launched maintenance plans, calcium carbide process delayed part, the industry as a whole started slightly lower than expected month-on-month, but the range is limited, long-term maintenance plan, maintenance volume is still insufficient.


The domestic market price has increased slightly, the price of carbide method 5 is in the range of 6,500-6600, the market order acceptance intention is light, the ethylene method is low price presale is better, part of the sealing, the price of traders slightly increased, the price is 6,600-6800 yuan/ton, the price is high.


In the short term, there is no change in market supply and demand, supply affected by overhaul in the recent performance is slightly lower, but the demand policy is more but no substantial promotion, coupled with increased export price competition, export reduction, domestic market sales pressure increase;  Terminal orders are expected to come in the middle and second half of the next month, again before the market high pressure continues, the cost is slightly supported in the near future, considering the pressure of supply and demand, the market price center continues to maintain the range of shocks, the long-term pressure continues.

Post time: Jul-27-2022