Brief analysis of present situation and future direction of high-end polypropylene in China

High-end polypropylene refers to polypropylene products in addition to general materials (drawing, low melt copolymerization, homopolymer injection molding, fiber, etc.), including but not limited to transparent materials, CPP, tube materials, three high products.

In recent years, high-end polypropylene has become a battlefield, high-end PP production capacity continues to increase, foaming polypropylene, metallocene polypropylene, three high polypropylene, ultra-low ash polypropylene and other new varieties of market share is low, but the demand space is broad, the future market development potential is huge;  By 2021, the output of high-end polypropylene reached 7,963,400 tons, the import volume was 2,399,100 tons, and the import dependence reached 23.57%.  Some products are facing the foreign monopoly status quo and are going through the process of starting from scratch.  The period of 2021-2025 is the booming development stage of high-end polypropylene, and the growth rate will slow down in 2025-2030.

During the 2022-2030 period, 35.63 million tons/year of polypropylene installations are planned to be put into commercial operation in China, but high-end polypropylene only accounts for about 30% of the new polypropylene capacity expansion, so it is about 10.7 million tons.  In addition to part of the PDH enterprise process, because its ethylene free source can only produce homogeneous polymer, it will not be classified into the ranks of high-end polypropylene in a short time, and part of the coal refining chemical and other devices, because the new device process is unstable, technology is not mature and other reasons make the refining and coal chemical industry more stable development, so the general materials such as wire drawing low melting copolymerization hit the market, it is not classified as high-end polypropylene for the time being;  In the future, Sinopec and CNPC will expand more capacity due to their rich history and stable process. Their layout focuses on the high-end market demand. In the future, the competition for high-end polypropylene will continue to revolve around the two oils.

In terms of demand, high-end polypropylene is currently in the largest demand for automotive modification. The rapid development of automotive lightweight concept and new energy vehicles has given greater vitality to the automotive modification market. The main demand growth point is medium-high fusion copolymerization.  The second is thin wall injection molding. Takeout packaging has been integrated into social habits. The takeout industry has developed particularly rapidly under the help of public health events.  The growth rate far exceeds the overall growth rate of polypropylene demand.  The transparent industry is widely used and has a broad prospect. It is mainly used in medical infusion bags, medical equipment, container packaging, infant products, etc. Among them, the medical transparent accounts for about 40% of the total transparent amount, followed by the container packaging.  Due to the aging phenomenon in China and the situation of normal epidemic, transparent steel needs to improve, and the current domestic transparent market is highly dependent on imports, so there is still a large space for development of domestic market in the future.  Finally, the high-end materials such as binary and ternary copolymerization CPP film and hot water pipe are limited in market supply due to their small market capacity and low activity. The domestic supply can only account for about 50% of the market share, and there is still a large space for play in the domestic market.  To sum up, the future growth rate of high-end polypropylene capacity expansion is less than the overall market pressure of polypropylene, and the market demand still has a large space for development, the future layout of high-end polypropylene research and development production is imperative.

Post time: Nov-09-2022