August PVC price and market analysis

Introduction: Recently the domestic PVC market has been in a downturn trend, the price rebound is weak, according to previous years, from the middle to late August demand began to rise, PVC market also improved, but this August is nearing the end, but did not usher in demand improvement, PVC market supply and demand continue to game.

The current domestic PVC social stock slightly reduced than last week, domestic PVC social stock in 359,300 tons, decreased 0.36% month on month, increased 173.13% year on year;  In East China, 295,000 tons were increased by 1.34% month on month and 190.50% year on year.  South China in 64,300 tons, decreased 7.48% month on month, increased 114.33% year on year.  The overall social inventory level is still higher than the same period in previous years, and there are more spot markets in East and South China.

In the downstream aspect, the construction of product enterprises continues to decline. Due to the power shortage in East China and Southwest China, the off-peak electricity consumption of industrial enterprises, and the response of some enterprises in pipe profiles and other industries to the policy, the construction is maintained at a low level, or the off-peak production reduction, temporary parking and so on.  The data of real estate new construction starts continues to decline, the demand for new orders is weak, the demand for most industries is poor, and the enthusiasm of product enterprises to start work is not high. Except for the affected areas, the level of early construction starts is maintained.

Supply as a whole, jun is next week, qinghai YiHua, jinchuan starts to ascend, attention needs to be continued in the southwest of xinjiang region and changes in construction, early September shandong xinfa and LG have maintenance plan, supply increment is limited, construction temporarily low, but the downstream products companies affected by the insufficient order, starts to ascend, for PVC consumption is limited,  It is expected that the social inventory pressure is not reduced, the PVC market continues to operate under pressure.

At present, there is no improvement in domestic demand. At the same time, many places are affected by high temperature power rationing and downstream parking. Entering September, it is the traditional peak season of demand.  In India, the monsoon season has not yet ended, demand is weak, coupled with low-cost supply shocks in the United States and low customer counteroffers, domestic exports have weakened.  In the fundamentals and futures disk without a big deviation, the market trading atmosphere is cold.

Analysis from the aspects of material calcium carbide and downstream demand, the supply of calcium carbide change is bigger, with the falling of the market price, domestic calcium carbide enterprises loss loss to strengthen regional, calcium carbide production enterprises in production, down load or peak production, etc., with the rapid decline in prices of calcium carbide, high stock market began to decline, and low prices rebound in the narrow,  The supply side is expected to remain low next week. With the rebound of the price, the maintenance device is expected to recover in the early stage.


Overall, the recent policy and supply side of the good market, PVC futures disk upward, driving the spot rise.  However, the policy is more to protect the real estate stock rather than increase, and the PVC industry inventory is high and downstream demand is weak, resulting in the PVC spot price upward pressure.  In September, the traditional peak demand season, to see if there is a further release of demand.  The price of PVC5 in East China market is expected to be 6400-6700 yuan/ton next week.

Post time: Aug-26-2022