2022 domestic PVC market is all the way down, this year bear hands in the pocket do not know what is the opponent, especially from the beginning of June in the second half of the year showed a cliff type decline, the two cities are falling continuously. According to the trend chart, the current prices of the two cities in January could still show the first wave of this year’s rise, the prices in February and March first fell and then rose, until early April, the prices of the two cities began to show a peak, in which the futures annual peak was 9529, the spot calcium carbide method price peak range intervened between 9250 and 9450. Ethylene method high point intervention between 9600-9730. However, the strong trend did not continue in the second quarter, starting to gradually decline in late April, May also difficult to rebound performance. June to July began to show a precipitous decline, the market plummeted, although in the middle and late July to repair the market, but ultimately unable to change the weak situation. From August to December, the market is still falling in constant shock. As of press date, the shipper even the lowest 5484, high and low point price difference 4045 points. And spot drop between 3400-3700. There was a tendency to bottom out in November-December, but the strength of the rebound was still weak compared to the annual decline. Let’s take a look at the impact of 2022 commodities:
Firstly, favorable factors in the first rising phase from January to March: 1. Firstly, in the first rising phase, the domestic monetary policy was continuously loose in the first quarter, and favorable macro policy frequently actively introduced market-friendly policies. In particular, the large infrastructure sector was relatively active and realized well in the first quarter, and the prices of real estate stocks and futures related varieties kept rising. And is also affected by the extreme highs of 2021. 2. The outer plate is affected by the winter cold snap, and the chlor-alkali unit of Formosa USA is under construction in Texas due to the power supply shortage. In early March, a large-scale power outage occurred in Taiwan without warning. Affected by the blackout, Huaxia Plastics of Taiwan, China successively reduced its load and stopped to wait for power repair. 3. Crude oil skyrocketed. Since February 11, 2022, geopolitical concerns began to mount, and finally the war started, crude oil experienced a sharp rise. Oil prices hit their highest level since 2008. March 7, 2022: U.S. benchmark WTI crude futures hit their highest close in more than 13 years, briefly trading above $130.00 per barrel. April WTI crude rose $3.72 to settle at $119.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since September 2008, after rising as high as $130.50. ICE May Brent crude rose $5.10 to settle at $123.21 a barrel, its highest settlement since April 2012, after rising as high as $139.13.
Subsequently, the two cities began to decline since the peak of the negative factors: 1. Put aside the extreme rise in 2021, with the improvement of the phased influencing factors, the PVC market will return to normal operation in 2022. However, due to the skyrocketing crude oil in the plasticizing plate, polyolefin has stronger fundamentals than PVC, and the profit of PVC single product is not bad, so it is selected as the air distribution product. And with the passing of time in the middle and late second quarter and the third quarter is particularly obvious, the long-term empty distribution of PVC to the spot market also caused a lot of pressure, the main contract position in the pan reached the highest 940,000 hands. 2. The performance of real estate data is not good, especially after the release of the first half of the year data, all the data declined significantly year-on-year, real estate series products group out, PVC suffered heavy losses. 3. Among the two major products of chlor-alkali enterprises, caustic soda began to rise in 2022, and the unit price of a single product even reached as high as 5,000-5,500 yuan/ton. The high profit of caustic soda drove the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali became the focus of capital to suppress PVC. 4. The Fed kept raising interest rates violently, raising rates by 25 points on March 17, 50 points on May 5, and 75 basis points a day on June 16, July 28, September 22, and November 3, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75-4%. 5. Fears of a recession persist on the outside. 6. In terms of PVC supply and demand, the supply has been at a high level. Although there has been a certain risk reduction load in the second half of the year due to the declining market, the overall construction is still high, the supply is abundant and the demand is weakened, and the domestic demand has been postponed indefinitely since the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai in April. PVC buy down do not buy up, the speculative demand is insufficient throughout the year, social inventory can not be normal destocking. 7. The price of outer PVC is declining, suppressing the high price of domestic PVC, and the export volume is weaker in the second half of the year.
The overall market in 2022 is mainly weak, from supply and demand, cost, commodity sentiment, policies, external trading and other aspects are unable to present a good support, and the negative is constantly superimposed, leading to the price of the two markets to fall continuously.
Post time: Jan-07-2023